ognizant Communication Corporation

TOURISM ANALYSIS

ABSTRACTS
VOLUME 10, NUMBER 3

Tourism Analysis, Vol. 10, pp. 211-221
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The Influence of the Weather on Recreational Behavior: A Micro Econometric Approach

Peter H. G. Berkhout and Natasja M. Brouwer

SEO-Amsterdam Economics, University of Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 29, 1018 WB Amsterdam

In this article the relationship between the weather and water-based recreational behavior is investigated at the microlevel. The relation is estimated by applying a zero-inflated negative binomial count model on a large dataset consisting of individually reported day-tripping behavior during a 2-week period. The weather conditions, measured by four indicators, were merged to these data. The analysis shows that effects of the weather on human choice behavior can be estimated at the microlevel. Various aspects of the weather (temperature, rain, wind, and sunshine) exert their particular influence on different recreational activities. In particular, temperature and wind force affect all types of water-based day trips. Rain and hours of sunshine appear to matter less.

Key words: Day-tripping; Weather; Zero-inflated negative binomial count model

Address correspondence to Peter H. G. Berkhout, SEO-Amsterdam Economics, University of Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 29, 1018 WB Amsterdam. Tel: +31 20 525 1630; Fax: +31 20 525 1686; E-mail: phgberkhout@zonnet.nl




Tourism Analysis, Vol. 10, pp. 223-232
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Analyzing Heterogeneity and Substitution in Trip-Making Propensity to Urban Parks: A Mixed Logit Model

Astrid D. A. M. Kemperman, Maarten M. W. Ponjé, and Harry J. P. Timmermans

Urban Planning, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands

The aim of this study is to describe and predict residents' trip-making propensity to urban parks. The parks are classified in four categories: local parks, neighborhood parks, district parks, and city parks. Specifically, a mixed multinomial logit model is estimated from data collected from a sample of 991 households (1107 members) in the Eindhoven region in the Netherlands in 2002. The effects of household and individual characteristics and temporal aspects such as time of day, day of week, and season are examined. The mixed logit model accommodates for individuals' differences in trip-making propensity to the various urban parks. Furthermore, a pattern of correlation across urban park types, and hence substitution, is obtained. Results indicate that residents prefer the smaller, local, and neighborhood parks to the larger, district, and city parks for their leisure trips. In addition, there is heterogeneity in trip-making propensity to the particular parks types, specifically with regard to the district parks. Moreover, the local and neighborhood parks are substitutes of each other while they are complements of the district park in terms of residents' leisure trip behavior.

Key words: Mixed logit model; Heterogeneity; Leisure trips; Temporal aspects

Address correspondence to Astrid D. A. M. Kemperman, Urban Planning Group, Eindhoven University of Technology, PO Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands. Tel: +31 40 24732911; Fax: +31 40 243 8488; E-mail: a.d.a.m.kemperman@bwk.tue.nl




Tourism Analysis, Vol. 10, pp. 233-245
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Stability in Outbound Travel Motivation: A Norwegian Example

Nina K. Prebensen1 and Jo Kleiven2

1Department of Tourism, Finnmark College, N-9500 Alta, Norway
2Faculty of Health and Social Work, Lillehammer University College, N-2626 Lillehammer, Norway

Only travel and leisure motives with some degree of stability are likely to contribute to predictions of travel choice or behavior. Eight motive scales, based on previous research and consultations with a travel company, were used in a survey of outbound tourists from Norway (n = 243). Their stability was tested in a quasi-experimental pre/post design. Respondents' trip abroad was used as the "experimental treatment," and postintervention measurements were taken at two different points in time: either after 1 week or after 2 months. Internal consistency proved satisfactory for seven out of eight motive scales tested. Confirmatory factor analysis also lends some support to the single-scale factor models. All seven scales show satisfactory test-retest reliability. A small, but statistically significant, difference between pre- and posttravel motives emerged in the powerful repeated-measurements analysis. A difference of this magnitude is not likely to have any practical significance, however. The interval difference between post- and premeasurements (1 week vs. 2 months) had no significant effect. The travel motives measured in the study thus may be trusted to be relatively lasting and stable phenomena. For the use of travel motives for predicting travel choices and behavior, this is a necessary, although insufficient, precondition.

Key words: Tourist motivation; Stability; Quasi-experiment

Address correspondence to Nina K. Prebensen, Department of Tourism, Finnmark College, N-9500 Alta, Norway. Tel: (++47) 78 45 0427; Fax: (++ 47) 78 43 44 38; E-mail: Nina@hifm.no




Tourism Analysis, Vol. 10, pp. 247-255
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The Advertising Effectiveness of Aboriginal Endorsers: An Example From Taiwan

Janet C. Chang,1 Geoffrey Wall,2 and Chung Yan (Angie) Lai1

1Department and Graduate School of Tourism Management, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan
2Graduate Studies and Research, Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1, Canada

Endorsement of products by successful aboriginal people might enhance the effectiveness of their marketing. While there is much research regarding aboriginal tourism, there is apparently little discussion of marketing strategies other than frequent criticism of the stereotypical portrayal of aboriginal people. The purposes of this study were to explore the effectiveness of different types of endorsement and to determine what types of advertising appeals are most effective in attracting tourists to visit aboriginal cultural sites. This research adopted a between-subjects experimental design. In total, 610 samples were valid. Among them, 461 questionnaires were returned by the six experimental groups, and 149 were obtained by the two control groups. The main interest of this study was to explore the effectiveness of endorsement advertising of aboriginal products, in this case aboriginal culture villages in Taiwan. The results revealed that an employee endorser (i.e., aboriginal dancer) stimulates a better response than a celebrity endorser. In addition, an emotional advertising appeal was more effective than using a rational advertising appeal in an aboriginal cultural village's brochure.

Key words: Aboriginal endorser; Authenticity; Advertising appeals; Advertising effectiveness

Address correspondence to Janet C. Chang, Associate Professor, Department and Graduate School of Tourism Management, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan. Tel: 886-937-402-966; Fax: 886-2-28611402; E-mail: j_chang@ms63.url.com.tw or jc_chang@faculty.pccu.edu.tw




Tourism Analysis, Vol. 10, pp. 257-268
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An Evaluation of Price Measures in Tourism Demand Models

Chi-Ok Oh1 and Robert B. Ditton2

1Department of Parks, Recreation and Tourism Management, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634-0735, USA
2Department of Recreation, Park, and Tourism Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-2261, USA

In contrast with the rapid development of forecast modeling in tourism, there has been little attention given to identifying the best measures of important explanatory variables. This article focused on selecting the best surrogate of tourism price from two measures considered important determinants in modeling tourism demand: the exchange rate-adjusted consumer price index ratio of origin and destination countries, and the divided variables of exchange rate and relative consumer price indexes. Two different models using these measures of tourism prices were compared in terms of their forecasting performance using the Johansen multivariate cointegration approach. We used aggregate data on international tourism demand in Korea. Test results, including forecasting performance and forecast error decompositions, were not clear cut but indicated that the divided measures of tourism prices variables with exchange rate and relative consumer price index are likely best for tourism demand modeling.

Key words: Tourism demand models; Tourism prices; Multivariate cointegration; Vector error correction models; Forecasting performance

Address correspondence to Chi-Ok Oh, Department of Parks, Recreation and Tourism Management, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634-0735, USA. Tel: 864-656-2005; Fax: 864-656-2226; E-mail: chiokoh@clemson.edu




Tourism Analysis, Vol. 10, pp. 269-276
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Before and After the Inclusion of Intervention Events: An Evaluation of Alternative Forecasting Methods for Tourist Flows

Rachel J. C. Chen

Department of Retail, Hospitality, and Tourism Management, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA

This article investigates the intervention impacts on tourist flows and evaluates the accuracy of various forecasting techniques to predict travel demand before and after the inclusion of intervention events. The forecasting methods used in this study include (1) Naïve 1, (2) Naïve 2, (3) Holt-Winter's model, (4) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, and (5) Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The Holt Winter's and Naïve models are included for comparison purposes to ensure that minimum performance standards are being met. Data on air transport passengers including international arrivals and domestic air transport flows of the US (from January 1990 to June 2003) were obtained from the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics. This study focuses firstly on the importance for forecasting accuracy of allowing for intervention events in the modeling process. SARIMA models are therefore estimated both with and without intervention effects (the September 11th events). These models are used to generate forecasts for 2002 and the first part of 2003, and forecast accuracy is assessed using mean absolute percentage error and root mean square percentage error. The second focus of the study is to examine the impacts on tourism demand of the major crises that occurred during the period 2001-2003.

Key words: Intervention impacts; SARIMA models; Air transport; Tourism demand

Address correspondence to Professor Rachel J. C. Chen, Ph.D., Department of Retail, Hospitality, and Tourism Management, University of Tennessee, 247 Jessie Harris Bldg., Knoxville, TN 37996-1911, USA. Tel: 1-865-974-0505; Fax: 1-865-974-5236; E-mail: rchen@utk.edu




Tourism Analysis, Vol. 10, pp. 277-290
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Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.

Dance as a Tourism Activity: Demographics, Demand Characteristics, Motivation, and Segmentation

Ken W. McCleary, Pamela A. Weaver, and Fang Meng

Department of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA

With the increased popularity of ballroom dance as a recreational activity in the US, there is a need to explore the different aspects associated with the participation in social and competitive dance events. This preliminary study examined the demographics, dance community involvement, travel-related activities, and the most important demand characteristics of the ballroom dance event market. By employing factor-cluster analysis, six motivation dimensions for social dance participation were identified: Escape & Relaxation, Socialization, Novelty, Dance Learning, (Dance) Event Enjoyment, and Excitement. Three cluster groups were identified based on the dance event motivation dimensions: Multipurpose Dancers, Dance Learning and Enjoyment Seekers, and Socialization and Relaxation Seekers. It is hoped that the results of the study will contribute to the better understanding of the dance event market and be helpful to those who organize and host dance events.

Key words: Event tourism; Dance event motivation; Factor-cluster analysis

Address correspondence to Ken W. McCleary, Ph.D., Department of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Virginia Tech, 353 Wallace Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061-0429, USA. Tel: (540) 231-3262; Fax (540) 231-8313; E-mail: mccleary@vt.edu




Tourism Analysis, Vol. 10, pp. 291-297
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Copyright © 2005 Cognizant Comm. Corp.
Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.

RESEARCH NOTE
Ratios of Tourist Experience: It Was the Best of Times It Was the Worst of Times

Mark P. Pritchard1 and Mark E. Havitz 2

1School of Community Resources & Development, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
2Department of Recreation and Leisure Studies, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada

Much like Charles Dickens' prelude to A Tale of Two Cities, stories tourists give of their destination experience tend to develop from an amalgam of positive and negative encounters. To understand best and the worst experiences researchers often consider using qualitative data to extract insights. Several approaches for analyzing self-report feedback on performance exist, yet the most frequently used approach asks tourists to provided written accounts of critical incidents, positive and negative experiences, that occurred during their destination visit. A content analysis of comments from 987 visitors was used to generate an overall account of the destination. Ratios of best and worst experiences with different attributes provide a report of strengths and weaknesses for industry action, and offer a template for destination researchers intent on describing experienced-based performance.

Key words: Tourist experience; Critical incidents; Performance evaluation; Attribute ratios

Address correspondence to Mark P. Pritchard, School of Community Resources & Development, Arizona State University, PO Box 874703, Tempe, AZ, 85287-4703, USA. Tel: (480) 965-8913; E-email: mark.pritchard@asu.edu




Tourism Analysis, Vol. 10, pp. 301-329
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Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.

REVIEW
Tourism as the Consciousness Industry: Kirshenblatt-Gimblett and the Mediative Authority of Tourism

Keith Hollinshead

The Luton Business School, University of Luton, UK

Recently, Kirshenblatt-Gimblett authored a transdisciplinary text on the manufacture of culture and heritage, examining the politicized manner in which "locations" are turned into "destinations." While her book is not exclusively about tourism, it is loaded with insight on the role of tourism/travel as an agent of display, and as a highly performative meaning producer. This review article analyzes what Kirshenblatt-Gimblett considers to be the undersuspected mediative agency/authority/power of those who work in tourism to collaboratively make "places"--and also "peoples" and "pasts." In this deconstruction of Kirshenblatt-Gimblett's contribution to the exhibitionary logic of place-making, her work on the ontological, museological, and frequently fabricative activity of tourism is first critically analyzed. Thereafter, some 30 propositions are bracketed (i.e., distilled) from what she terms as the "the madeness" and "the hereness" of local reality-making in and through tourism. These propositional insights on the objectifications and theatricalities of the manufacture of felt or represented "difference" are found to be vitally important in an era where tourism is increasingly being touted as the educative and self-formative project of our time. Yet the emerging field of Tourism Studies remains an undertheorized domain where culture, itself, habitually subsists as an unproblematic concept in the half-light of the humanities. The author of this review article considers that the field (of Tourism Studies) has much to learn from Kirshenblatt-Gimblett on the small "p" political character of all sorts of areas of cultural selection and cultural production through tourism (i.e., of the aggregative ways in which local distinctiveness is collaboratively created, re-created, or de-created in and via tourism).

Key words: Heritage tourism; Public culture; Collaborative memory; Reality-making; Cultural production/meaning production; Performativity; Madeness; Hereness

Address correspondence to Dr. Keith Hollinshead, Professor of Public Culture, Department of Tourism Studies, The Luton Business School, University of Luton, Park Square, Luton LU1 3JT, Beds, UK. Tel: 01582:743139; Fax: 01582: 743143; E-mail: keith.hollinshead@luton.ac.uk