ognizant Communication Corporation

TOURISM ANALYSIS

ABSTRACTS
VOLUME 11, NUMBER 6

Tourism Analysis, Vol. 11, pp. 337-348
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Copyright © 2006 Cognizant Comm. Corp.
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Understanding Choice and Rejection in Destination Consideration Sets*

Richard R. Perdue and Fang Meng

Department of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA

Understanding destination choice is a key focus of tourism research. An extensive body of existing research examines various components of the decision process, including destination choice modeling, information seeking, and the formation and effects of destination images. The existing research is primarily focused on the factors that influence the positive choice of a particular destination. Recognizing the concept of a consideration/evoked set, a research question that has not been adequately examined is "why are destinations rejected?" The underlying, but untested, assumption is reciprocalness of attributes. Destinations that are perceived as high on a given set of attributes are chosen and the rejected destinations, de facto, are assumed to be rejected because they are low on those same attributes. This research identifies key differences in the reasons why people select a resort destination compared to the reasons for rejection. While further research is needed, the results are discussed within the framework of a noncompensatory, satisficing destination choice heuristic.

Key words: Destination choice; Skiing; Consideration set

Address correspondence to Richard R. Perdue, Department of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 362 Wallace Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA. Tel: (540) 231-5515; Fax: (540) 231-8313; E-mail: perduerr@vt.edu

*An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Tourism: State of the Art II Conference in Glasgow, Scotland in June 2004.




Tourism Analysis, Vol. 11, pp. 349-366
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Copyright © 2006 Cognizant Comm. Corp.
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Modeling Domestic Tourism in Sweden

Anders Lundgren,1 Erling Lundevaller,2 and Dieter K. Müller3

1Spatial Modelling Centre, Kiruna, Department of Social and Economic Geography, Umeå University, SE-981 28 Kiruna, Sweden
2Department of Statistics, Umeå University, SE-901 87 Umeå, Sweden
3Department of Social and Economic Geography, Umeå University, SE-901 87 Umeå, Sweden

In this article it is demonstrated how a microsimulation model based on TDB data (Swedish Tourist Database provided by Marknadsfakta, Åre, Sweden) can be used to estimate the number of trips, choice of activity, and choice of destination for domestic overnight trips in Sweden using individual microdata from Statistics Sweden. It is argued that this modeling on the microlevel accounts for changes in population structure and geography to a far greater extent than conventional models because of its focus on individual behavior in relation to individual socioeconomic characteristics. Thus, changes in the supply of tourism result in changing travel patterns. Also changes in the population and its spatial distribution are mirrored directly in the resulting travel pattern.

Key words: Tourism; Microsimulation; Modeling; Travel pattern; Tourism statistics

Address correspondence to Dieter K. Müller, Department of Social and Economic Geography, Umeå University, SE-901 87 Umeå, Sweden. Tel: +46 90 786 63 66; Fax: +46 90 786 63 59; E-mail: dieter.muller@geography.umu.se




Tourism Analysis, Vol. 11, pp. 367-379
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Copyright © 2006 Cognizant Comm. Corp.
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SARS in China: Tourism Impacts and Market Rejuvenation

Huimin Gu1 and Geoffrey Wall2

1School of Tourism Management, Beijing International Studies University, Beijing, China
2Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada

In an increasingly turbulent world, the tourism industry is forced to respond to external factors that are beyond its control. This article examines the consequences of SARS for tourism in Beijing and elsewhere in China and the initiatives that were taken to revive the tourism economy. The SARS episode is divided into four stages: preliminary, crisis, recovery, and normalization. Although severe, the impact of SARS was short-lived, partly because the Chinese authorities took prompt actions to address the crisis, particularly through product repackaging and new marketing initiatives.

Key words: Beijing; China; Impacts; SARS; Marketing

Address correspondence to Geoffrey Wall, Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada. E-mail: gwall@fes.uwaterloo.ca




Tourism Analysis, Vol. 11, pp. 381-395
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Copyright © 2006 Cognizant Comm. Corp.
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The Macroeconomic Environment and Airline Profitability: A Study of US Regional Airlines

Ismail H. Genc,1,2 Jon R. Miller,1 and Dogan Gursoy3

1College of Business and Economics, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844-3178, USA
2School of Business and Management, American University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
3School of Hospitality Business Management, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-4742, USA

In this article, a SARMAX(p,s,q) model is utilized to study the macroeconomic determinants of regional airline profitability in the US. While seasons have an impact on profitability, no season seems to differ from another. Findings indicate that wealth has more relevance than income on the profitability variable. The cost of capital and unemployment negatively affect airlines. Although small, the lagged values of profitability mostly have a perverse effect on the current profitability, indicating the absence of a sustained growth performance in the industry. Even though 9/11 has negatively affected regional airlines, this study fails to find a statistically significant support for that observation. In addition, findings suggest that inflation in general and the real price of oil do not have statistically significant effects.

Key Words: SARMAX; Airlines; 9/11

Address correspondence to Dogan Gursoy, Ph.D., Associate Professor, School of Hospitality Business Management, Washington State University, 479 Todd Hall, PO Box 644742, Pullman, WA 99164-4742, USA. E-mail: dgursoy@cbe.wsu.edu




Tourism Analysis, Vol. 11, pp. 397-409
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Copyright © 2006 Cognizant Comm. Corp.
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Relationship Between Satisfaction and Future Behavior

Metin Kozak1 and Jay Beaman2

1School of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Mugla University, 48170 Mugla, Turkey
2Auctor Consulting Associates, Ltd., Adjunct Faculty, Colorado State University, Cheyenne, WY 82009, USA

Studies have been carried out on satisfaction and international pleasure travel. Some have related satisfaction and past visits to a particular destination with intentions to recommend it, to revisit it, and to visit other destinations in its area. This study arose from reconsideration of research on satisfaction and stated intentions of travelers from Britain and Germany to Mallorca and Turkey. Analysis confirmed that satisfaction is a significant predictor of stated intentions and that contingent factors moderate the influence of satisfaction on intentions. Explaining limited variance led to the logical examination of why the explanation was not better. It is concluded that variance explanation was low because segments had particular satisfaction-likelihood relations and because satisfaction and likelihood responses were ambiguous. Sources of variation that can be controlled are identified. They include some first-time visitors not being likely to return regardless of satisfaction; personal satisfaction responses not reflecting what the party will do; and likelihood responses not having a clear meaning. Practical and research implications are presented.

Key words: Satisfaction; Return travel; Recommending; Likely behavior; Response variability

Address correspondence to Metin Kozak, Ph.D., School of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Mugla University, 48170 Mugla, Turkey. E-mail: M.Kozak@superonline.com




Tourism Analysis, Vol. 11, pp. 411-420
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Residents' Perceptions of Tourism Impacts: An Analysis of Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation

Xiao-Li Lu,1 Chunyou Wu,2 and Gui-Rong Xiao3

1School of Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China
2School of Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China
3Department of Geography Environmental Studies, University of Waterloo ON Canada

Investigating residents' perception of tourism impacts is a good method to analyze the status of tourism impact. Due to the underlying correlation among several impacts indices, tourism impacts are generally very complex to model. Various methods such as single-variable and statistics used in previous authoritative studies are not sensitive enough, which may affect the decision-making process adversely. The purpose of this research is to present the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method to analyze residents' perceptions of tourism impacts. Basic attributes and a hierarchical framework of tourism impacts are defined and formed. Then weighted vectors are determined according to the knowledge and experience of experts. The weighted evaluation matrices are then aggregated to get the fuzzy sets of tourism impacts. In the final stage, the final fuzzy sets are defuzzified to get the rank of residents' perceptions of tourism impacts. Sensitivity of fuzzy synthetic evaluation is quite high compared to other index evaluation techniques. A case study in Jiuzhaigou National Park of China is provided to demonstrate the application of this method. The findings clearly indicate that the fuzzy synthetic evaluation may successfully harmonize inherent complex conditions in residents' perception of tourism impact.

Key words: Residents' perceptions; Tourism impacts; Fuzzy synthetic evaluation; Jiu Zhaigou

Address correspondence to Xiao-li Lu, School of Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China 116024. E-mail: lxiaoli76@yahoo.com.cn




Tourism Analysis, Vol. 11, pp. 421-425
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Copyright © 2006 Cognizant Comm. Corp.
Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.

RESEARCH NOTE
Reasons Behind Taking International Pleasure Trips During a Pending War: A Proposed Typology

Omar Moufakkir

Tourism Management, CHN-University of Professional Education, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands

People take international pleasure trips for different reasons. The objective of this study was to investigate the reasons behind taking international pleasure trips during wartime. The research took place during the second week of the Iraq war. Recognizing safety as a strong factor that influences travel and vacation taking, we randomly selected 118 international tourists in Tenerife, Spain, and asked them the following question: "Why have you taken an international pleasure trip despite the pending war?" A content analysis of this question resulted in the following four categories: "get away," "war is outside Tenerife," "booked before," and "tradition." Based on these results and informal unstructured interviews with respondents, a typology has been attempted. We were able to identify four groups that we named: (1) The travel hard tourists, (2) The fatalistic tourists, (3) The orthodox tourists, and (4) The optimistic tourists.

Key words: Tourism; Iraq war; Typology; International pleasure trips

Address correspondence to Omar Moufakkir, Ph.D., Tourism Management, CHN-University of Professional Education, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands. Tel: (00)33-582441288; E-mail: omoufak@chn.nl