ognizant Communication Corporation



Tourism Analysis, Vol. 13, pp. 1-20
1083-5423/08 $60.00 + .00
Copyright © 2008 Cognizant Comm. Corp.
Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.

Symptoms of Complexity in a Tourism System

Rodolfo Baggio

School of Tourism, The University of Queensland, Australia
Master in Economics and Tourism, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy

Tourism destinations behave as dynamic evolving complex systems, encompassing numerous factors and activities that are interdependent and whose relationships might be highly nonlinear. Traditional research in this field has looked after a linear approach: variables and relationships are monitored in order to forecast future outcomes with simplified models and to derive implications for management organizations. The limitations of this approach have become apparent in many cases, and several authors claim for a new and different attitude. While complex systems ideas are among the most promising interdisciplinary research themes emerged in the last few decades, very little has been done so far in the field of tourism. This article presents a brief overview of the complexity framework as a means to understand structures, characteristics, and relationships, and explores the implications and contributions of the complexity literature on tourism systems. The objective is to allow the reader to gain a deeper appreciation of this point of view.

Key words: Tourism destinations; Complex systems; Chaos; Nonlinear analysis

Address correspondence to Rodolfo Baggio at his present address: Master in Economics and Tourism, Bocconi University, via Sarfatti, 25, 20136, Milan, Italy. Tel: +39 02 5836 5447; Fax: +39 02 5836 5439; E-mail: rodolfo.baggio@unibocconi.it

Tourism Analysis, Vol. 13, pp. 21-31
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Copyright © 2008 Cognizant Comm. Corp.
Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.

Climate Change and Tourism in Northwestern Europe: Impacts and Adaptation

Sarah Nicholls1 and Bas Amelung2

1Departments of Community, Agriculture, Recreation & Resource Studies, and Geography, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
2International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable Development, University of Maastricht, Maastricht, Netherlands

Each summer millions of northern Europeans have historically escaped the unfavorable weather conditions in their countries in search of the traditional "sun, sand, and sea" vacation in the Mediterranean region. Climate change may alter this longstanding tourism flow, however. Based on combination of a series of scientific climate change scenarios with the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI), a method of evaluating a location's climate for general tourism activity, this article examines projected changes in climatic suitability for tourism in northwestern Europe. Under all the scenarios considered, peak season conditions throughout northwestern Europe are projected to improve over the course of the coming century. In addition, the length of the peak season is also projected to increase in many regions, encompassing not only summer, but extending also into spring and autumn. Our findings suggest that projected climate change could considerably enhance northwestern Europe's competitive advantage relative to the Mediterranean in the summer season. Such shifts in climatic suitability could potentially have substantial impacts on the volumes, spatial distributions, and timing of travel within and to Europe. Together, these alterations to tourism activity have profound implications for the operation of the European tourism industry, from the planning, location, and development of new accommodations, transportation routes, and attractions, to the staffing and operation of existing enterprises. As discussed further in the article, the ability of tourism businesses to successfully adapt to these new conditions is likely to depend heavily on their recognition of climate change as an issue (i.e., the adoption of a proactive rather than reactive stance); to their organizational flexibility; and to the mobility of their capital investments.

Key words: Climatic suitability; Climate change; Impacts; Adaptation; Northwestern Europe

Address correspondence to Sarah Nicholls, Departments of Community, Agriculture, Recreation & Resource Studies, and Geography, Michigan State University, 131 Natural Resources Building, East Lansing, MI 48824-1222, USA. Tel: +1 517 353 5190; Fax: +1 517 432 3597; E-mail: nicho210@msu.edu

Tourism Analysis, Vol. 13, pp. 33-41
1083-5423/08 $60.00 + .00
Copyright © 2008 Cognizant Comm. Corp.
Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.

The Life Cycle of a Terrorism Crisis: Impact on Tourist Travel

Steven E. Moss,1 Chuck Ryan,2 and Janet Moss3

1Department of Finance & Quantitative Analysis, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, GA 30460-8151, USA
2Department of Management, Georgia College and State University, Milledgeville, GA 31061, USA
3Department of Management, Marketing & Logistics, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, GA 30460-8154, USA

The impact of terrorist events on various business sectors has been widely publicized, and the tourism travel industry has been one of the most impacted industries. Prior work has shown that air travel is affected by a terrorist incident within the region in which it occurred. This research is the first to model the magnitude of the episode, the duration of the effect, and the shape of life the cycle. Two terrorism events that affected tourist air travel are analyzed: 9/11 and the Madrid train bombings. Our findings suggest that the impact on tourist air travel from these catastrophes follow scalable and fad life cycles, respectively. These results have significant implications for the tourism travel industry, which are identified and discussed.

Key words: Tourism; Air travel; Terrorism; Life cycles

Address correspondence to Steven E. Moss, Department of Finance & Quantitative Analysis, Georgia Southern University, PO Box 8151, Statesboro, GA 30460-8151, USA. Tel: 912-681-0757; Fax: 912-871-1835; E-mail: smoss@georgiasouthern.edu

Tourism Analysis, Vol. 13, pp. 43-51
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Copyright © 2008 Cognizant Comm. Corp.
Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.

Modeling and Forecasting the Volatility of Long-Stay Tourist Arrivals

Troy Lorde and Winston Moore

Department of Economics, University of the West Indies, Bridgetown, Barbados

Volatility is an important characteristic of most tourist economies. Fluctuations in tourist arrivals can occur due to unanticipated events, such as natural disasters, crime, the threat of terrorism, and business cycles in key source markets. This study exploits recent time series modeling techniques to model and forecast the volatility in monthly international tourist arrivals to Barbados. The results show models that allow mean volatility to change over time tend to have the best forecasting performance. However, relatively simple models, such as the RiskMetrics approach, can also produce predictions that are statistically at least as good as more complex models.

Key words: Volatility; Tourist arrivals; Forecasting; Caribbean

Address correspondence to Winston Moore, Department of Economics, University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus, P.O. Box 64, Bridgetown, Barbados. Tel: (246) 417-4275; Fax: (246) 417-4270; E-mail: winston.moore@uwichill.edu.bb

Tourism Analysis, Vol. 13, pp. 53-69
1083-5423/08 $60.00 + .00
Copyright © 2008 Cognizant Comm. Corp.
Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.

Tourism Satellite Accounts and Impact Assessments: Some Considerations

Calvin Jones and Max Munday

Welsh Economy Research Unit, Cardiff Business School, Cardiff, UK

The agreement between international agencies that Tourism Satellite Accounts (TSA) are the most appropriate way to measure the economic contribution of tourism has led to an explosion in the number of countries (and regions) developing such accounts. In reliably reconciling visitor supply and demand, TSAs offer improved information for tourism policy development and economic impact assessments, both of which are important in guiding resources and support for new tourism infrastructure and individual events. There are, however, a number of conceptual and structural issues that limit the usefulness of the TSA for economic modeling purposes. This article suggests that while the collection and manipulation of information that supports the TSA will aid impact and policy assessment, a further reengineering of the TSA framework is necessary to lever the full benefits for such studies. The TSA is found to be ideally used as a basis for complementary modeling techniques, including that of Computable General Equilibrium and Social Accounting Matrices.

Key words: Tourism satellite accounts; Impact assessment; Economic modeling

Address correspondence to Max Munday, Welsh Economy Research Unit, Cardiff Business School, Colum Drive, Cardiff CF10 3EU, UK. Tel: 0044 2920 875089; E-mail: mundaymc@cf.ac.uk

Tourism Analysis, Vol. 13, pp. 71-80
1083-5423/08 $60.00 + .00
Copyright © 2008 Cognizant Comm. Corp.
Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.

Understanding Cathedral Visitors: Psychological Type and Individual Differences in Experience and Appreciation

Leslie J. Francis, Emyr Williams, Jennie Annis, and Mandy Robbins

University of Wales, Bangor, UK

This article examines the experience and appreciation of 381 visitors to St Davids Cathedral in West Wales through the lens of Jungian psychological type theory. The data demonstrate that St Davids Cathedral attracts more introverts than extraverts, more sensers than intuitives, and more judgers than perceivers, but equal proportions of thinkers and feelers. The data also demonstrate that different aspects of the visitor experience appeals to different psychological types. Sensers are more attracted than intuitives by the facts, information, and data they encounter on their visit. Feelers are more attracted than thinkers by the atmosphere and wider ambience generated by the cathedral during their visit. The implications of these findings are discussed for understanding and developing the way in which cathedrals may develop the visitor experience.

Key words: Psychological types; Visitor experience; Cathedral visitors

Address correspondence to Leslie J. Francis, Welsh National Center for Religious Education, University of Wales, Bangor, Gwynedd LL57 2DG, Wales, UK. Tel: 01248 382566; Fax: 01248 383954; E-mail; l.j.francis@bangor.ac.uk

Tourism Analysis, Vol. 13, pp. 81-92
1083-5423/08 $60.00 + .00
Copyright © 2008 Cognizant Comm. Corp.
Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.

The Influence of Nationality on the Generation of Tourist Satisfaction With a Destination

Sara Campo1 and Joan B. Garau2

1Department of Marketing, Universidad Autònoma de Madrid, Spain
2Business Economics Department, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Spain

Academic literature and empirical studies have demonstrated that consumer satisfaction is a good indicator of the financial results of businesses and tourist destinations. An analysis of tourist satisfaction and how to improve satisfaction levels is therefore crucial, not just for business profits but also for a destination's economic development, especially in the case of resorts that have reached a mature stage of development where visitors must be conserved in order to remain competitive. The aims of this article are to analyze and measure tourist satisfaction with one of the most popular, mature resorts in the Mediterranean, the Balearic Islands, and, from these results, to detect differences in tourist satisfaction depending on their nationality. The results show that by measuring satisfaction as a multidimensional construct, it is possible to identify the key variables in generating overall satisfaction. At the same time, the results also help decision makers at destinations to improve satisfaction levels by prioritizing how they invest, concentrating on aspects that play a key role in generating satisfaction. The results also reveal differences in the generation of satisfaction depending on the tourists' nationalities. This finding is crucial in understand tourists' buying behavior and it may become a basic tool in helping destinations to adapt and improve their commercial facilities and infrastructure to meet the specific expectations of each nationality.

Key words: Destination marketing; Tourist nationality; Satisfaction; Scale development

Address correspondence to Sara Campo, Marketing Department, Universidad Autònoma de Madrid, Facultad de Econòmicas, Ctra. Colmenar Viejo Km. 13.5., Madrid, Spain. Tel: +34914973549; E-mail: sara.campo@uam.es

Tourism Analysis, Vol. 13, pp. 93-98
1083-5423/08 $60.00 + .00
Copyright © 2008 Cognizant Comm. Corp.
Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.

Computer-Based System of Tourism and Recreational Systems Study and Optimization

Oleg Shcherbina and Elena Shembeleva

Faculty of Mathematics, University of Vienna, Austria

This article discusses a methodology for development and validation of a comprehensive computer-based system of tourism and recreational systems study and optimization (CBSTRS) that is based on mathematical modeling of the recreational system and its processes, to assist planners in evaluating alternative scenarios and planning options. This allows empowering the organizational frontline by giving people systems with which they can solve their own problems, as distinct from the traditional approach of having specialists solve problems and then deliver solutions to the problem owners. The CBSTRS is a model-based decision support system (DSS) designed to work with data describing tourism and recreational systems, or, in other words, the CBSTRS is a database system with data describing recreational systems as well as a set of operations and mathematical models for working with the data. Proposed technology integrates common database operations such as query and statistical analysis with the unique possibility for mathematical modeling and analysis benefits offered by the system. These abilities distinguish the CBSTRS from usual information systems and make it valuable to a wide range of public and private enterprises for modeling and analyzing planning strategies for recreational systems.

Key words: Tourism; Recreation; Decision making; Decision support system; Mathematical modeling

Address correspondence to Oleg Shcherbina, Faculty of Mathematics, University of Vienna, Nordbergstr. 15, Vienna 1090, Austria: Tel: +431 427750660; Fax: +431 427750670; E-mail: oleg.shcherbina@univie.ac.at